Bank My Stake Bet Victor

• Bank My Stake Bet Victoria Texas
• Bank My Stake Bet Victoria
• Bank My Stake Bet Victory
• Bank My Stake Bet Victorville

With my bank at €1000 and my odds 2.05 this would mean a stake of €48.78 on the first bet (I'm staking to return €100 which is 10% of my bank). My stake is thus only 4.87% of my bank which might seem reasonably small considering I have a 50% chance of success. I graph the results after each 1000 bets. In this run my bank increased to.

1. £20 now and £20 during Cheltenham Week. Min stake £10, min odds 2.0 (Evs). Only deposits made using Cards or ApplePay will qualify. Free bets valid for 30 days, x1 £20 free bet awarded at bet settlement, x1 £20 awarded at 10am Mon 15th March.
2. The size of your betting bank will also determine how much you can stake on any individual bet. To work this out, you need to calculate your longest likely losing run. There are numerous losing run calculators available online, which can tell you how many losing bets you can expect in a row through random chance.

• in Betting by Lucy
• |

Welcome to lesson 4 in my Back to Basics Betting Class!

If there is one simple thing you can do to get better at betting, it's to use a robust staking plan. There is no glamour to it, and very few systems providers explain it properly (except occasionally to go a bit mystical about Fibonacci or something similar!). But in my experience, good staking is the bedrock of successful betting. Do it right, and you're already halfway there. Do it wrong, and you are almost certain to haemorrhage money.

Here then are the rules that I personally follow. There are other approaches but I don't believe you can go far wrong with these four ideas.

1. When you're trying out a new system, please use level staking only. Any decent system can benefit from a good staking plan, but until you've proven it's a decent system, you should be using level stakes. Otherwise the staking plan will distort your results (for better or worse), and cloud the issue (which should simply be – ‘is this system any good?').

2. There is one exception to rule 1. I will allow myself to adopt a level liability approach for laying systems that permit high prices (i.e. laying to SP), but only as a risk mitigation strategy (which is a fancy way of admitting to cowardice).

Like the bookies, I'm scared to death of the Foinavon effect (i.e. getting torched by some runaway longshot), but unlike them, I am unable to persuade mug punters to take lousy odds from me on rank outsiders. So SP laying it sometimes has to be. But even then, you should keep records of what would have happened if you'd used level stakes.

I have switched to using Chris's wonderful new spreadsheet to test ZeroHype's Laying service, precisely because it allows us to track to both fixed liabilities and fixed stakes.

3. Once you have a great system, use ratcheted staking. This means betting with a set percentage of your bank, in such a way that your stakes grow gradually as your bank balance rises. For a low-risk system (e.g. betting at short prices), 5% is an acceptable figure. For higher risk methods, you may wish to consider 3%, or even 2%.

The most important points though are that the chosen percentage should:

• 'feel right' – i.e. you don't get too down if you lose, because you know you have a winning system that will come right in the end
• be a figure you decide on in the morning then stick to all day. Don't try working it out on the fly as you'll only get confused.

Ratcheted staking also protects your bank balance if you start to lose, by making it last longer. A 5% ratcheted stake might sound a lot, but it lasts a lot longer than the 20 bets that first come to mind. In fact, after 50 straight losing bets on a £100 bank, you would still have a little money left (£7.69, assuming 1 bet per day). Such is the joy of exponential mathematics! (do I need to get out more!?)

You may be tempted, during a dry spell, to keep on going with the same stakes (a flat £5, in my example) in order to accelerate a recovery, but this is seriously flawed thinking. Be professional and stick to your percentage. If you have a sound system, then it will only be a matter of time before things improve, and your bank starts to climb again.

And of course when you do start to make progress, ratcheting benefits from the miracle of exponential mathematics when going upwards too, so that the results can be extraordinary. I digress slightly, but I love the old ‘wheat on the chessboard problem', which, paraphrasing Wikipedia, illustrates this point quite wonderfully:

• When the creator of the game of chess showed his invention to the ruler of the country, the ruler was so pleased that he gave the inventor the right to name his prize for the invention. The man, who was very wise, asked the king this: that for the first square of the chess board, he would receive one grain of wheat, two for the second one, four on the third one, and so forth, doubling the amount each time. The ruler, arithmetically unaware, quickly accepted the inventor's offer, even getting offended by his perceived notion that the inventor was asking for such a low price, and ordered the treasurer to count and hand over the wheat to the inventor. However, when the treasurer took more than a week to calculate the amount of wheat, the ruler asked him for a reason for his tardiness. The treasurer then gave him the result of the calculation, and explained that it would be impossible to give the inventor the reward. The ruler then, to get back at the inventor who tried to outsmart him, cut off the inventor's head to discourage such trickery!
• On the entire chessboard there would be 2⁶⁴ − 1 = 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice, weighing 461,168,602,000 metric tons, which would be a heap of rice larger than Mount Everest. This is around 1,000 times the global production of rice in 2010 (464,000,000 metric tons).

Nowadays of course, you are more likely to find that your account is simply closed by your bookie without the need for decapitation, but it is still a problem that a sensible staking plan can easily leave you with… so do look at my article on eight ways to stop your bookie from closing you down.

4. Never chase losses. It really is the fastest way to the poor house. Everyone knows this deep down, but somehow it's easy to forget when things are going against you.

Why do so many people do it? Because they keep losing, and they want a quick way out, that's why. Hence the popularity of systems like Fancy Fillies, which has a cute name, but is little more than a well-packaged, loss-chasing plan.

I ditched the Fancy Fillies system after a handful of bets on account of its suicidal approach to staking. This sort of stuff should be avoided at all costs.

And of course, if you really want to play Russian roulette, there's always Martingale…

And that's all there is to it!

Lucy x

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There is a strong case to suggest that the amount you bet is actually more important than what you bet on. We reviewed five popular staking methods. Continue reading to discover which is best.

Professional blackjack player and author Ed Thorp was a successful card-counter. Too successful, many would argue, as his ability at the tables of Las Vegas' biggest casinos lead to the implementation of multiple decks and the start of a war on card-counting.

Method of calculating the appropriate amount of money to place on a bet for consistent profit making as part of a betting strategy.

Despite his expertise as a professional gambler – he published two books on the subject – he attributed the majority of his success to a staking formula created by mathematician John Kelly Jr. 'Playing strategy is maybe a third to a quarter … of what you're going to get out of it. Betting strategy may be two thirds or three quarters'.

Of course, it's easy to say that a betting strategy is important. But what makes a useful strategy in sports betting? With influence from Alex Bellos' Alex's Adventures in Numberland, we mapped the success of five betting strategies over a series of 500 bets:

What to do in atlantic city besides gamble. The above graph shows the profits from 500 simulated bets for five betting systems, with the probability of winning at 55% on a Binary bet. The initial bet for each method was $100 (except for the all-in method, which initially bet $1000). Each system started with a $1000 bank, and the simulation continued for each method until the 500th bet (or until their bank was minimised).

As you can see, one betting system provides far greater returns than the others, while one drops you out pretty quickly.

The five systems are outlined below – which letter do you think each line corresponds to?

Strategy 1: Bet everything, every time

Bet your entire bankroll on each bet. The advantage is that you get big returns, fast. The downside? As soon as you lose, you're out of money and out of the game.

Strategy 2: Fixed wager

Bet a fixed amount for each bet, and don't vary no matter how much you win. In this example, it was $100. If your chance of winning 55% on a 2.000 bet, this method means you've dramatically reduced your chance of losing your entire stake. Unfortunately, it means your winnings are limited to increase in a 'slow and steady' fashion.

Strategy 3: Martingale

Bet double your stake after any failed bet, to cover your losses with the next bet's winnings. This gives a quicker increase than fixed wagers (as you're doubling up to cover any losses). If you experience sequential losses, however, the required stakes continue to double, and you'll very soon be betting large amounts to cover your losses.

Strategy 4: Fibonacci

Increase your stake in a Fibonacci sequence, to your losses with the next bet's winnings. This method has similar drawbacks to Martingale method in sports betting, but it reduces how quickly the stake increases if you're on a losing streak (and therefore also reduces the rate at which you win).

Strategy 5: Proportional betting

Bet a fraction of your bankroll in proportion to your edge. In this simulation, we used the Kelly Criterion formula for proportional sports betting. With this method, your bet should be your edge divided by the odds. In this example, as the edge is 10% and the odds are evens, 10 / 1 is 10.

Therefore 10% of the $1000 wallet should be bet: $100. Should that bet be successful, the next bet would increase to $110, 10% of the new $1100 wallet. This means winnings increase quicker than in the fixed-wager system, and losses slow down.

Which strategy is best?

The correct answer is:

A. Bet everything

B. Martingale

Bank My Stake Bet Victoria Texas

C. Fixed wager

D. Proportional Betting

E. Fibonacci

As you can tell from the descriptions above, proportional betting appears to have a natural advantage over the others systems. Imagine you're down to your last $100 – you'd be betting $10, (and decreasing), keeping you in the game for much longer than a fixed-bet system, where your last $100 would be your last bet.

Bet everything brings in big gains after the first bet, earning as much in one risk than the others do in the first seven. The light that burns seven-times as bright burns a thousandth as long, however, the 'bet everything' sports betting strategy is eliminated on just the second round.

The chance of making it through 1,000 rounds at 55% is infinitesimally small as to be practically impossible (although you would have earned $67 billion by round 27).

The simulation shows that different staking techniques have vastly different outcomes, even if the variables stay the same.

Bank My Stake Bet Victoria

Fibonacci and Martingale – progressive sports betting systems – also start strongly, but any big sequence of losses ramp up the required stake.

In our simulation, at round 83 (R83), we lost 11 times in a row. These defeats totally wiped out both Fibonacci and Martingale's stakes, and at the end of this 11-in-a-row streak the hypothetical Martingale bettor had to bet $403,000 dollars to recuperate his losses. That's a huge amount, considering his maximum purse was just $6,300. For Fibonacci, the maximum bet was $33,500, with his purse reaching its zenith at $4,100 before the wipeout.

The only system other than proportional betting to avoid losses was fixed betting, which accrued slow but steady increments. By R83, fixed betting had increased its purse to $3,400, and afterwards it had only dropped to $2,300. It wasn't out, but there was not a lot to show for 95 bets.

Bank My Stake Bet Victory

The 11-bet losing streak also hit proportional betting pretty hard, reducing its winnings from $7,359 to $2,286 – lower than that of fixed betting. This shows how well fixed betting protects your winnings. However, by bet 500, fixed betting had only brought in $6,400, while proportional betting had earned $18,275.

Bettors should note that this is based on a huge assumption that the edge is in your favour, without it the results for all staking strategies would change dramatically.

Backing your staking technique

Bank My Stake Bet Victorville

The above simulation shows that different staking techniques have vastly different outcomes, even if the other variables stay the same. The difference between being wiped out and finishing with $18,275 after 500 bets was simply choosing a suitable staking system.

It's important however, to remember that there is no 'ideal' system. Although the Kelly Criterion system worked in the example above, there may be more developed systems for different types of bets. It's important to discover which staking style is suitable to your sports betting, typically through research and simulation.

It's also important to remember that the Kelly Criterion system only works if you know your edge, which you use to calculate your stake. If your calculation of your edge is incorrect, you're still going to have difficulties whatever you do. Read through the rest of our Betting Resources archive to help sharpen your understanding of betting formulas and strategies.

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